Atomic Ambiguity: Geopolitical Rivalries and the Dynamics of Nuclear Decision-Making

Abstract: This thesis explores the intricate relationship between geopolitical rivalries and the transition from nuclear latency, emphasising the role of these rivalries in shaping nuclear decision-making. Utilising a comparative study of the India-Pakistan and Argentina-Brazil dyads, the research investigates how variations in geopolitical rivalry intensity influence states' resolve to either pursue nuclear proliferation or reversal. By examining the dynamics of these rivalries in the context of historical, cultural, and political factors, the thesis offers insights into the causal pathways linking rivalry intensity to nuclear transitions. The findings suggest that while geopolitical rivalries are pivotal in driving nuclear decisions, the direction of this influence is complex and multifaceted. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of nuclear latency and proliferation, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between rivalry, national identity, and nuclear ambitions.