How Uncertainty Influences Intelligence Analysis - The Foundation of a New Theory
Abstract: Uncertainty is a central concept to intelligence analysis (IA) but there is no theory that attempts to explain its role in IA and how it can be understood or managed. In this theory developing study, a definition of uncertainty and of intelligence analysis is presented. Four other fields are chosen for their similarity to IA and because they also must contend with uncertainty. The four fields are medicine, criminology, business, and political science. A literature review of those four fields is performed for research into uncertainty. The findings are then summarized into a set of propositions that can form the basis of a new theory of uncertainty in IA, that is applicable to both the academic and professional sides of IA. The findings demonstrate the need to reduce, and when not possible to manage uncertainty by structured analytical methods, improved communication, statistical assessment, risk assessment and insurance strategies.
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