Forecasting UAS capability with a five-year timeframe

Abstract: During the war in Ukraine, technical and tactical innovation in the deployment of commercial drones for IRS and strike missions, and artillery spotting have been witnessed. This study aims to create a better understanding of evolving UAS capability and create a use-case forecasting UAS capability in five years. The research uses a combination of empirical data through two case studies in combination with interviews, collecting the perspective of four researchers and experts in the fields. The forecasted UAS capability use-case describes a multilayer use of aerial platforms of different sizes, performances, and specifications, which makes aerial IRS and strike capability available at lower tactical levels. Other aspects in the use-case are artificial intelligence that supports data processing in networking surveillance, command and control system, and autonomous navigation. Implications for UAS capability in an electronic warfare environment and implications for countermeasure deployments are discussed. The results presented in the study are generic and should be complemented with further studies, which through scenario-based research can create clear recommendations to specific actors linked to UAS capability.