Relative Deprivation and Terrorism in the Sahel

Abstract: The Sahel has emerged as a global hotspot for terrorist activity during the first decades of the 21st century. Few empirical studies have been carried out to investigate the causes of this phenomenon. The overarching literature on the determinants of terrorism has also failed to establish conclusive mechanisms and channels of causation. Studies have found economic shocks to increase the likelihood of civil conflict. This study examines if this mechanism holds for terrorism in the Sahel between 1985-2019. As the Sahel region is largely reliant on agriculture as the main economic activity, agricultural shocks are considered as the trigger terrorism. A Possible threat of reverse causality between agriculture and terrorism is taken into account with a rainfall instrument. The results show no significant relationship between agricultural shocks and terrorism in the Sahel during the period of the study, suggesting that terrorism in the region is tied more deeply into political, cultural and historical factors.