He who desires peace? : A comparative case study analysis of why national nuclear weapon doctrines and evolving strategies change, application in relation to offensive and defensive neorealist theory

Abstract: This essay bases itself on a qualitative method and a case study analysis of seven objects of analysis, partly the nations who are identified as superpowers among nuclear weapons states, long term possessors of nuclear weapons, and new players. It also examines the historical and contemporary nature of national nuclear doctrine with the aim of conceptualising change and why they occur in doctrines, as well as testing these changes against theories of offensive and defensive neorealist assumptions on what drives states to act within the sphere of nuclear force. Three research questions guide the thesis, pertaining to why nuclear doctrines change, whether states in nuclear force seek equilibrium or security, as well as what kind of incentive nuclear weapons add for states in the anarchic system. This evaluation is aided by a matrix illustrating the results of the empirical section. The study finds that states are motivated by three key elements to change their nuclear doctrines; politics, external pressure and state survival, and that a majority of cases analysed act in accordance with defensive realism, with Russia as an outlier case for offensive realism. It is further found that nuclear weapons can be argued to add the incentive of striving towards the “balance of power” as is the notion presented by defensive realism, as states utilise nuclear stockpiles as elements to wield in diplo