Economic Recovery - Solidifying Peace? Quantifying the intersection of UN Peacekeeping Exit Points, Economic Recovery, and Conflict Recurrence

Abstract: According to the UCDP database, roughly 60% of all armed conflicts between 1944 and 2016 have recurred, an issue which has become increasingly incorporated into the framework of United Nations peacekeeping operations. Economist Paul Collier has theorized upon the importance of economic recovery for building sustainable peace, proposing that economic recovery should be the true exit point of UN peacekeepers. The contribution and purpose of this thesis has been to statistically test Collier’s idea, quantifying a previously understudied nexus between UN Peacekeeping exit points, economic recovery, and conflict recurrence. Through a regression analysis using GDP per capita as the main independent variable and two different operationalizations of conflict recurrence as the dependent variables, the analysis shows that recovery of GDP per capita at the exit point of UN peacekeeping operations significantly affects the number of repetitive conflict recurrences. The study also finds that high State Capacity has a significant effect on lowering the probability of any instance of conflict recurrence. The results provide evidence, in accordance with Collier’s proposed idea, that economic recovery at the exit point of PKOs has a significant effect on conflict recurrence, offering policy implications for future peacekeeping practices.