DEMOCRACY FOR ALL? A Quantitative Study on How Power-sharing Affects Approval of Non-Democratic Governance in African Post-Conflict Societies

Abstract: Since the Cold War, intrastate conflicts have become more common, and more conflict settlements call for power-sharing. Despite power-sharing being so common as a means of ending civil conflict, academic research indicates that power-sharing could be harmful to democratization. Previous academic research has focused on the macro perspective of the impacts of power-sharing on post-war democratization while the micro perspective has been overseen by scholars. This thesis addresses this gap by scrutinizing the effect of power-sharing on the approval of non-democratic governance in six African post-conflict societies by conducting a Multiple Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis using Afrobarometer survey data. By using a grievance-based theoretical framework, I hypothesized that: (1) inclusion in power-sharing generates a higher approval of non-democratic governance compared to being excluded from power-sharing; (2) grievances have a moderating effect on the relationship between inclusion in power-sharing and approval of non-democratic governance. The analysis entailed that: (1) individuals who have ethnic linkages to armed groups involved in power-sharing arrangements approve of non-democratic governance to a greater extent compared to individuals without such linkages; (2) individuals who are included in power-sharing and not having grievances generate to some extent higher approval of non-democratic governance compared to individuals who are included in power-sharing and having grievances.