Alignment of mitigation pledges with government expenditure in Latin America : A case study of Chile, Colombia and Peru in the COVID-19 context

Abstract: The implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2020 has coincided with the outbreak of COVID-19. Recovery paths taken to deal with the economic consequences of the pandemic can be either an opportunity to foster a sustainable growth or a return to business-as-usual model. Assuming that national budgets define the economic strategy of governments, this thesis addresses the relationship between mitigation pledges outlined in NDCs and mitigation-related expenditure in Chile, Peru and Colombia pre- and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A deductive thematic analysis of NDCs is used to identify the prioritized mitigation sectors and to allow for a refined focus in the analysis of the relevant mitigation-related expenses for each case country. Budgets of 2020 and 2021 are compared and discussed in the light of previous research. Results show different levels of climate ambition but common prioritised sectors (energy, land-use, and industry). Regarding Peru, the budgets indicate a higher mitigation ambition than their NDC by including expenditure in areas that are not mentioned in the NDC. Contrary, Colombia and Chile have detailed NDCs that cover more aspects than indicated through their government expenditure. Generally, energy and industry expenditure misalign with the NDC pledges, due to the increase of expenses on national fossil fuels resources in 2021. Land-use mitigation expenditure, linked to forestry and agriculture, have increased in Chile and Peru but are hardly represented in Colombia. Thus, the thesis outlines early misalignments of mitigation targets with government expenditure and differences in accountability and transparency that could challenge the monitoring of progress towards the achievement of the pledges.