A Climate, Land, Energy, and Water Nexus Assessment of Ethiopia

Abstract: Ethiopia is a landlocked country located in northeast Africa with a predominantly rural population dependent on rainfed agriculture and traditional biomass. The Ethiopian economy is growing fast and as it continues to grow, so does the demand for water, food, and energy. Ethiopia is already facing food, energy, and water scarcity issues, and climate change's impacts have been increasing the strain on these resources. The country has great renewable energy resource potential, which is largely unexploited. The Ethiopian government aims to improve the water, and energy systems, and make them more resilient to climate change. The water, energy and land resources are not unlimited and sustainable management of these resources is therefore important. This thesis examines Ethiopia's energy, land, and water systems to identify cross-system challenges and their impact on Ethiopian food, water, and energy security. Furthermore, the food, water, and energy systems' vulnerability to climate change is also investigated. This integrated assessment is done by creating a Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems (CLEWs) model of Ethiopia with the open-source energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS.The study showed that a development and transformation of the agricultural sector, from a predominantly rainfall-dependent agriculture to an agricultural sector with a greater share of irrigation, had both beneficial and negative effects on the resource systems. The development of the agricultural sector increases the yield per hectare and creates a more climate-resilient agriculture, increasing food security. However, irrigated agriculture is more expensive, with a larger water and electricity demand, which in turn could harm water and energy security. The study also showed that climate change could impact electricity generation in Ethiopia; however, the climate resilience of the energy system can be improved by investing in more biomass, wind, and solar PV.