From Conflict to Crisis : Investigating the long-term effects of conflict on public health and the burden of disease attributable to environmental risks

Abstract: This thesis investigates, if the exposure to conflict impacts the level of morbidity attributed to environmental risks, while addressing a gap in understanding the triple nexus between conflict, environmental hazards, and public health. Utilizing a subset of the Global Burden of Disease Study dataset, the variation of the rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to unsafe access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) due to conflict is examined. The findings of the country-fixed effects model – using a sample of Sub-Saharan African countries – reveal that the intensity of conflict significantly increases the rate of DALY, indicating a greater negative public health outcome in line with the hypothesis. The choice of the conflict threshold does significantly impact the results, emphasizing the importance of a robust definition of conflict. Controlling for foreign aid attributed to health and the density of health workers, the negative health outcomes associated with conflict are mitigated, suggesting that adequate healthcare provision can mitigate the impacts of conflict on public health. Overall, this thesis contributes to the understanding of the triple nexus, highlighting the need for more research and policy measures to address the long-term health impacts of conflict.