Future North Sea oil production and its implications for Swedish oil supply regarding the transport sector : -A study on energy security and sustainability of future strategic resources

Abstract: Historically, it has been negative to be dependent on only one resource, in the current situation this resource represents oil. The oil dependence is primarily in the transport sector. From a Swedish perspective oil is an energy resource mainly used in the transport sector. Much of the oil that Sweden imports has its origin in the North Sea. The oil production in the North Sea has however begun to decline, which highlights that oil is a finite resource. This also means that Sweden has to start importing oil from other countries, which may affect the Swedish energy security as these countries may be geographical further away and also be more political instable. It also implies that a transition from oil to renewable fuel within the transport sector is essential. The aim of this thesis is to study how Swedish energy security is affected by the oil production volumes in The North Sea. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first part consists of updating historical data from recent analyses on North Sea oil production (i.e. Höök and Aleklett, 2008 and Höök et al., 2009a), and also create updated forecasts of future oil production for both Denmark and Norway. The second part investigates how production declines in the North Sea affect the Swedish oil imports. The final section examines how a shift to renewable fuels within the transport sector is possible, with a focus on natural resources. Finally some recommendations are presented on how Sweden could increase their energy security regarding the transport sector by introducing renewable fuels.