Renewables and electrification in Europe, A critical analysis

Abstract: Electrification of processes has become the cornerstone of the strategy to decarbonise energy supply, especially in recent years. This study aims to define the main issues underlying the electrification of the European energy mix, especially those caused by an increasing share of intermittent energies. To this end, through a mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis and personal contributions via modelling, I undertake a critical analysis of the opportunities and challenges of upscaling renewable technologies on the European territory. The examination of the different European scenarios for the energy transition sheds light on their dependence on the cost assumptions for renewables, which have proven to be highly overestimated. Incorrect cost assumptions and the lack of consideration of transmission, curtailment and sector coupling are the main reasons for the overestimation of storage needs, estimates that tend to decrease over time. Batteries are expected to play an increasing role for daily storage, while hydrogen is preferred for seasonal storage. The latter will become essential once variable renewable energies play a significant role, especially during Dunkelflaute, periods of low wind and solar potential, which are particularly challenging in Europe. Based on 40 years of historical data, I show how these phenomena can be significantly mitigated by increasing the pooling of VRE production on the continent. I also estimate that electrification of the steel, ammonia and methanol sectors can provide 166 TWh of flexible electricity demand by 2050. In general, the problems associated with inertia and frequency management, while significant, are not an obstacle to VRE expansion. Finally, the results of this work argue for the broadest possible cooperation on electrification strategy at the continental level.