Eco-Social Reforms and the Paradox of Complex Change : A qualitative thematic analysis of the national media debate on the 2022 Chilean Constitution

Abstract: By now, it is an acknowledged fact that economic growth, social justice, and environmental sustainability are interconnected. Often referred to as the eco-social-growth trilemma, the challenge is to achieve synergy between the objectives and avoid trade-offs. This thesis adds to the field by exploring central themes related to the trilemma in the national media debate on the 2022 Chilean constitutional draft and discussing what they indicate about public opinion on eco-social policies in general in the country. The analysis found that multiple of the theorized tensions affecting public support were central in the debate on a semantic level, including affordability of changes, necessity of changes, effect on job security, political bias, welfare deservingness, effects on existing benefits and state involvement in welfare. Moreover, on a latent level, three overarching themes permeated the debate: uncertainties about the future, lack of representation and limitations of freedom. Overall, results showed that environmental issues took a backseat to social and economic objectives in the debate, which can be connected to what I call the Paradox of Complex Change. The Paradox refers to the notion that eco-social reforms need to encompass multiple parameters and factors to be successful and yield support, but simultaneously the very same maximalism can backfire. With more parameters included, there are more potential sources of disagreement – and chances are focus shifts away from the core issues. This is something for future researchers as well as policymakers to consider.