The effect of mine closures on depopulation in the Principality of Asturias, Spain

Abstract: The paper examines the impact of the mining sector's closure on population decline patterns in the Principality of Asturias, Spain. It utilizes two distinct databases of own construction that provide disaggregated data on the region's 78 councils. The first database encompasses demographic information spanning from 1900 to the present day, while the second database contains socioeconomic data from 2001 onwards. Initially, a descriptive analysis is conducted to provide historical context to the evolution of demographic trends. Subsequently, an econometric analysis investigates the correlation between demographic and socioeconomic variables, as well as the relationship between each council and mining. Finally, synthetic control methods are applied to estimate the effects of mine closures on the selected councils. The findings indicate a negative impact of mine closures on the councils heavily reliant on the mining sector. While population decline trends were evident prior to mine closures, the combination of this shock and the absence of viable alternatives aggravated the situation significantly.