Multilevel Cox Regression of Transition to Parenthood among Ethiopian Women

Abstract: The birth of the first child is a special event for a mother whose life can change dramatically. In Ethiopia women’s timing to enter motherhood vary between the regions. This paper is therefore focusing on how birth cohort, education and residence affect the rate of entering motherhood for Ethiopian women in the different regions and the entire country. The dataset is extracted from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) and contains 15,019 women from 487 different households. For more accurate estimations and results, the correlation within households is taken into consideration with multilevel survival analysis. The methods used are the Cox proportional hazard model and two frailty models. The results of the paper show that women residing in rural areas have an increased rate of entering motherhood compared to those residing in urban areas, every age group older than those born 1997 to 2001 have a higher intensity to enter parenthood and those with education have a decreased intensity ratio compared to the women with no education. It also shows that there is a regional difference in the effect of the estimated ratios of the covariates. Performing the multilevel analysis only changes the estimated effects of the covariates in the cities and one region. It is concluded that the estimated intensity ratio of multilevel survival analysis only varies from the standard Cox regression when the region is heterogeneous.