Unconditional cash transfers to single mothers effective for child education? – Using a historical policy experiment

Abstract: In this thesis, I examine whether unconditional cash transfers to poor femaleheaded households have an effect on children’s educational attainment. Using a historical Swedish child allowance policy that targeted unconditional cash transfers to widow mothers with an income below a poverty threshold, I lay out a credible identification strategy, to test the hypothesis with a regression kink design. The results, although statistically underpowered and thus to be taken with a pinch of salt, point towards that cash transfers at the extensive margin increased the probability of continuing school another year to eighth grade. While this tendency can not alone be interpreted causally, the method developed can be extended in future work. With the collection and matching of two uniquely rich micro datasets tracking individuals over their life trajectory, combined with this natural experiment setting, my study contributes to building the path to understanding the link between cash transfers and human capital development in childhood. Ultimately, it could add to the policy guidance literature.