Energy System Analysis of thermal, hydrogen and battery storage in the energy system of Sweden in 2045

Abstract: Sweden has goals to reach net-zero emissions by 2045. Although electricity sector is almost fossil free, industry & transport still rely on fossil fuels. Ambitious initiatives such as HYBRIT, growth of EV market & expansion of wind power aim to expedite emission reduction. Decarbonization of transport, industry and large-scale wind & solar PV integration in the future necessitates studying energy system of Sweden at national scale in the context of sector coupling, external transmission & storage technologies. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the impact of thermal energy storage, hydrogen storage and batteries via Power-to-heat & Power-to-hydrogen strategies in the future Swedish energy system (2045) with high proportions of wind power. Two scenarios SWE_2045 & NFF_2045 were formulated to represent two distinct energy systems of the future. The SWE_2045 energy system still relies on fossil fuels, but to a lower extent compared to 2019 level and has increased levels of electrification and biofuels in the transport and industrial sectors. In comparison, the fossil fuels are completely removed in NFF_2045 and the industrial sector has significant demand for electrolytic hydrogen. Both the scenarios were simulated using EnergyPLAN, a deterministic energy system model, under each storage technology. The results indicate that HPs coupled with TES has the potential to increase wind integration from 29.12% to 31.8% in SWE_2045 and 26.78% to 29.17% in NFF_2045. HP & TES also reduces heat production from boilers by 67% to 72% depending on the scenario, leading to overall reduction in total fuel and annual costs by at least 2.5% and 0.5% respectively. However, for wind integration of 31.1% in SWE_2045 the annual cost increases by 5.1% with hydrogen storage compared to TES. However, hydrogen storage shows better performance in NFF_2045, wherein the wind integration increases from 26.78% to 29.3%. Furthermore, increasing hydrogen storage for a lower wind capacity (60 GW) in NFF_2045 reduces both electricity import and export while simultaneously increasing the contribution of storage in fulfilling the hydrogen demand from 1.62% to 6.2%. Compared to TES and HS, the contribution of battery storage is minimal in sector integration. For increase in wind integration of 28% to 29%, the annual cost of a system with battery storage is 1.3% to 2% higher than that of the system with TES and hydrogen storage respectively. Therefore, HPs coupled with TES can improve flexibility in both scenarios. Hydrogen storage is not a promising option if the end goal is only to store excess electricity, as shown by the results in SWE_2045. However, it demonstrates better utilization in terms of wind integration, reduction in electricity import and export when there is a considerable demand for hydrogen, as in the case of NFF_2045.