Flexibility of electricity usage in private households with smart control : Modelling of a smart control system with the aim to reduce the electricity cost of private households with storage units and photovoltaic systems.

Abstract: High electricity prices have become the title of several news articles recently in Sweden and the prices have experienced large sudden fluctuations during certain periods. In this thesis work, a smart control model for the electricity usage in three different households has been developed with the main purpose to minimize the electricity cost. This has been implemented by using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) to optimize the cost 24 hours ahead, and by forecasting two of the main inputs; the load and the electricity spot prices for bidding zone three (SE3) in Sweden. The units included in the model are the photovoltaic system, the batteries, the electricity consumption in the house and the electric vehicles. However, the main task of the smart control was to determine when and in which amount the energy should flow from one unit to another, or to/from the grid. In other words, it decides the charging/discharging of the batteries, the selling/buying of electricity and the charging of the electric vehicle (EV). Different amounts of cost savings/profits have been obtained when applying the smart control on the three houses, which have different annual consumption, capacities of the components, heating systems and more. The results showed that it is most optimal to run the model between the time interval 13.00-00.00, when the spot prices for the next day are known, in order to avoid the remarkable impact accompanied with the use of forecasted electricity prices as input to the model. The forecasting of the load is, on the other hand, required to run the model, but this thesis showed that the effect of the uncertainties in this forecast is relatively small. Three types of machine learning methods were implemented to perform the forecasts, namely linear regression (LR), decision tree regression and random forest regression. After measuring especially the mean absolute error (MAE) to validate the results, the random forest regression showed the least error and the other methods showed close results when looking at the electric load prognosis.