Fault prediction in information systems

Abstract: Fault detection is a key component to minimizing service unavailability. Fault detection is generally handled by a monitoring system. This project investigates the possibility of extending an existing monitoring system to alert based on anomalous patterns in time series.The project was broken up into two areas. The first area conducted an investigation whether it is possible to alert based on anomalous patterns in time series. A hypothesis was formed as follows; forecasting models cannot be used to detect anomalous patterns in time series. The investigation used case studies to disprove the hypothesis. Each case study used a forecasting model to measure the number of false, missed and correctly predicted alarms to determine if the hypothesis was disproved.The second area created a design for the extension. An initial design of the system was created. The design was implemented and evaluated to find improvements. The outcome was then used to create a general design.The results from the investigation disproved the hypothesis. The report also presents a general software design for an anomaly detection system.