THE INCONSISTENT WELFARE STANCES OF AN INCOHERENT PARTY FAMILY A statistical analysis of the effect of welfare salience on the welfare positions of radical right parties

Abstract: The radical right is held together as a party family by their positions on sociocultural issues like immigration and law and order, while displaying a relatively large variation over time and across countries on socioeconomic issues. Since it is becoming more and more common for radical right parties in Western Europe to take part in government, it is however important to know what to expect from them in all policy areas and not just those that are at the core of their ideology. One factor that has been found to explain the variation in welfare positions of radical right parties is the degree to which redistribution is salient to them. The aim of this thesis is to investigate if welfare salience at the societal level is also able to explain the welfare positions of radical right parties. The theoretical idea that is proposed is that radical right parties vote-seek by adopting left-leaning welfare positions when welfare issues are salient. When welfare issues are not salient however, they are able to office-seek as a secondary strategy by adopting right-leaning welfare positions without having to fear significant vote losses. This relationship is investigated through a statistical analysis of the welfare positions in the election manifestos of radical right parties in Western Europe from 1970 up until today and the salience of welfare issues in the corresponding elections. The results show that when the salience of welfare issues is higher, radical right parties do adopt more left-leaning welfare positions.