WILL WE BE S(WIND)LED? : A CBA of further onshore wind power expansion in Sweden

Abstract: Sweden is a country with close to zero fossil-fuel dependency in their electricity generation. The Swedish government has established specific goals that the Swedish electricity system should consist solely of renewable energy, as well as achieve zero net emissions in electricity generation within 25 years. To reach these goals, Sweden have been investing avidly in wind power over the last 15 years, making them one of Europe’s leading investors in the technology. However, this has started public debate on the topic as humans-, as well as flora and fauna, are affected negatively by the turbines. This paper investigates public benefits and costs of further onshore wind power expansion in Sweden. The focus is to analyse if an increased onshore wind power expansion can cease imports of fossil-fuelled electricity, Sweden’s main source of fossil-fuel dependent electricity. Furthermore, the aim is to determine if a wind power expansion of magnitude to eliminate these imports of fossil-fuelled electricity is of public benefit or not. A regression model gives support for the conclusion that an increased wind power production diminishes imports of fossil-fuelled electricity. Moreover, the magnitude of wind power production necessary to completely eliminate these imports are combined with public benefits and costs for onshore wind power to evaluate the socioeconomic value of the expansion. This is evaluated using the present-value method and included in a cost-benefit analysis. The results suggest that an increased onshore wind power expansion is of public benefit if most added electricity from the expansion can replace electricity generated from greenhouse gas-intense facilities abroad, and thus mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, if less added electricity from the wind power expansion is used to replace production from greenhouse gas-intense facilities, public benefits decrease whilst subject to the same costs. Moreover, if production from the onshore wind power expansion solely mitigates the greenhouse gases from Sweden’s imports of fossil-fuelled electricity, public costs exceed the public benefits, and the total socioeconomic value of the investment is negative. The conclusion of this paper suggests that a further onshore wind power expansion is of public benefit if its production is guaranteed to mitigate substantial amounts of greenhouse gases through exported electricity.