Dynamic Risk Management in Air Traffic Management System Failures

Abstract: Context This research looks at managing uncertainty and recovery processes following failure of a sociotechnical system. The provision of Air Traffic Services (ATS) is an essential service that must continue to function supporting at a minimum; medical flights, search and rescue operations, humanitarian aid, State and military flights (as demonstrated during the recent global pandemic). Purpose The objective of this research is to see what operationally deployed processes supported the resumption of ATS while emerging from, or still in, an uncertain degraded system state. Methodology A qualitative case study approach using semi-structured interviews was adopted. Two failure events were examined. Failure event report documentation was reviewed, face to face interviews with key personnel involved in ATS systems failures were conducted. The interview data was collected, crosschecked against event documentation, and then coded and analysed. Results While the use of air traffic flow restrictions to mitigate system overload are used daily to prevent overload, it is not acceptable to society as a prolonged mitigation against system degradation. The emergence of safety strategies displayed in dealing with uncertainty contained elements of a resilience system. The trade-offs required to achieve the safety processes necessary to resume service provision demands were fine tuned to edge, closer to the edge of an unfamiliar safety boundary (for both events) in a dynamic setting with multiple adjustments as both systems returned to service. Discussion The current popularity of resilience as a design prerequisite for new systems doesn’t address the requirement to achieve resilience in current operational systems. Opportunities exist to adopt some practices and strategies that can enhance resilience. The interplay between boundaries and actors is key to navigating uncertainty in a dynamic ATM environment. While the front-line operators (ATCOs, Ops Supervisors & ATS Engineers) are key to negotiating the production boundary, there needs to be protection counterbalance strategies. Several items are proposed in Chapter 5 for consideration; complexity considerations, retro fitting resilience i.e. dedicated abnormal degraded system operations training module to specifically allow front-line operators to practice for failure, uncertainty, and fundamental surprise, & inclusive training strategies and regulatory considerations, these discussion items are intended to be of use to those tasked with navigating uncertainty in degraded Air Traffic Management operations in preparing for such events.