CCU in Scandinavia: an uncertainty analysis regarding the future state of captured carbon in the region.

Abstract: The urgent need to mitigate climate change has prompted researchers to investigate novel strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One promising technology that might ease the way for sustainable and circular economies is carbon capture and utilization (CCU), which not only captures CO2 emissions but also uses them to produce valuable products. This thesis investigates the potential of CCU in the Scandinavian region beyond 2030. By analyzing environmental -, policy -, and technological uncertainties, the research assesses the feasibility and viability of implementing CCU solutions in the context of the region’s unique socioeconomic and environmental characteristics. The findings reveal significant potential for CCU in the region beyond 2030. The availability of abundant renewable energy resources coupled with strong government support for climate action and innovation creates a favorable environment for CCU development. Furthermore, as there are potential overlaps with a carbon capture and storage (CCS) ecosystem currently under construction, this further simplifies the deployment of CCU systems as the transition from traditional production has a partially established supporting ecosystem. One example is the established CO2 transportation required for both CCS and CCU. While this is the case, governmental support is required to catalyze this deployment. The current anharmonic mixture of sector-unique legalization hinders large-scale implementation. Uncertainties regarding the potential profitability, highly related to emission-based incentives and taxes, as well as limited established large-scale processes, can restrict the deployment in the region. In summary, the thesis is optimistic about the development and deployment of CCU in the region and expresses possibilities for this type of technology’s impact on the current emission crisis.