Drought: an oasis for conflict? : A qualitative case study about why some conflicts escalate during drought whilst others do not

Abstract: Although the armed conflict-drought nexus has gained increased attention lately, it isstill unclear what the causal mechanism looks like. In order to gain more knowledgeabout this I have attempted to answer the question of why some conflicts escalateduring drought while others do not by conducting a cross case comparison of theconflict between Al-Shabaab and the government of Somalia and the conflict betweenthe Tuaregs and the government of Mali. The results show that drought could lead toboth escalation and de-escalation of armed conflict, acting mostly as a trigger. Themost important thing for people is the access to vital resources, such as food andwater, and their group affiliation can change based on who provides these resources.This could show policy makers what to focus on in order to prevent radicalisation butit first and foremost gives a ground to researchers that want to investigate thedrought-armed conflict nexus further.