Climate Change and Positive Peace - A Study on the Effects of Rapid-Onset Climate Change on Positive Peace

Abstract: While it has often been argued to be connected, the climate-peace nexus is still understudied. Multiple reasons are underlying this, such as that the focus has been solely on the effects of climate change on negative peace and that a clear definition of what peace consists of is non-existent. This study therefore aims to fill these gaps by answering the question “Under which conditions does climate change affect positive peace?”. Based on research on peace, human security, and the climate-conflict nexus, a theoretical underpinning of positive peace is constructed. In this, it is argued that positive peace consists of three overarching factors, namely political, social, and economic stability. It is further argued that climate change, more specifically natural disasters, has a negative effect on this positive peace. Through conducting a worldwide quantitative study by employing multivariate multiple regressions it is shown that droughts, and hydrological natural disasters, namely floods, decrease multiple components of positive peace. Opposite to the hypothesis that rapid-onset climate change decreases positive peace, extreme temperatures, storms, and fires, as well as the meteorological natural disasters increase multiple of its components. Therefore, more research is warranted to understand the effects of rapid-onset climate change on positive peace.