Climate and Conflict in Somalia : Drought as an Exacerbation of State-Based Violence

Abstract: As the effects of climate change grow more severe, scholars and policymakers have paid increased attention to the intersection of climate and conflict. This study examines one subset of that crossing: how drought leads to the exacerbation of state-based violence. While researchers generally agree that droughts increase conflict risks, the underlying link that connects them remains a key uncertainty. This study puts forth a newly assembled causal mechanism of staple insecurities, forced displacement and recruitment opportunities. It argues that as water and food become scarce due to drought, individuals are forcibly displaced in search of basic necessities. Subsequent vulnerabilities and lack of economic alternatives give warring parties an opportunity to recruit members, ultimately leading to an escalation of the conflict. Using a structured focused comparison method with elements of process tracing, this study analyzes four cases (time periods of drought and non-drought) which are drawn from the southern area of Somalia. The findings are aligned with the hypothesized relationship, thus contributing to the academic literature by providing evidence of a causal mechanism through which drought – and therefore climate change – can exacerbate state-based violence.