CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTION GRIDS OF GOTLAND AND KLINTEHAMN

Abstract: Climate change represents a critical threat to electrical infrastructure. With reliance on electricity expected to increase in Sweden due to the transition from fossil fuel based energy to greener energy sources, it is important that the reliability of the electrical grid be upheld. This thesis studies the potential climate affected effects of extreme precipitation, annual average temperature change, water pooling after 100/500-year rains, and sea level rise. The RCP scenarios used for extreme precipitation and temperature change are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These climate effects will be studied in this thesis to understand and determine the extent of the climate effects on the electrical grid of Gotland and Klintehamn. The possible issues on infrastructure that can be exacerbated by these climate effects will be presented. This thesis will use spatial analysis to find results using GIS as a tool. GIS will be used to compare the various climate effects over the electrical grid data. Data was received from various sources, extreme precipitation and temperature change were sourced from SMHI, water pooling, and sea level rise were sourced with permission from Region Gotland. The electrical grid data for both Gotland and Klintehamn was received from GEAB, this data is considered nationally sensitive information therefore the location of this data is not shown. The results generally show that climate change, no matter the scenario presents a threat to the infrastructure. Although it should be noted as well that the scenario will impact the severity of the effects. RCP 8.5 will likely have more of an effect for both extreme precipitation and temperature than RCP 4.5. Water pooling is expected to have a greater effect on the <20kV lines than on the 70kV infrastructure. Finally, sea level rise is expected to have a much greater effect from 2-meter sea level rise over the 1-meter sea level rise. The overarching theme found is that climate change will have impacts over the electrical grid.