The Transformation of Risk Perception & Risk Tolerance of Airline Pilots as they progress through their career

Abstract: Risk perception and risk tolerance are key elements of decision-making and flight safety. During flight operations, an accident may occur if a pilot underestimates risk level or overestimates their capacity (risk tolerance). Despite the numerous research studies conducted previously on risk perception and risk tolerance, there has been limited investigation into the "evolution" of these two constructs as airline pilots progress in their careers. This project examines 16 pilots from two groups of different airlines (eight pilots for each airline) at four different stages of their careers (cadet pilots, second officers, first officers and captains) to determine: (1) Their understanding of risk and safety; (2) Risk perception and risk tolerance; (3) Comparison between the two airline pilots. Pilots were presented with a decision scenario during an approach and landing phase with aggravated conditions and conflicting requirements. A few additional general questions about their understanding of risk and safety were also asked. Results show that pilots from both airlines always prioritize safety and are aware of potential flight safety risks. However, not all risks are seen as equal, with some risks considered less impactful than others on their decisions. Their assessment and perception of risk vary according to their rank and experience. Risk tolerance among these pilots also changes accordingly. This research provided important insight into how airline pilots’ risk perception and risk tolerance as they progress through their ranks. Additionally, pilots’ feedback about the scenario and questions and discussions also revealed the importance and benefit of this type of training for the pilots, especially at the earlier stage of their career, to help enhance flight safety and decision-making. Although a general direction of pilots’ risk perception and risk tolerance as they progress through their career may be seen, the current small sample size may be subject to misperception of some risks, indicating the limitations of this research.