Pre-study for SMR and Nuclear Establishment in Norway

Abstract: Norway has Europe’s highest share of renewable electricity production and the lowest power sector emissions. Thanks to the country’s stable power production, Norway has affordable and stable access to electricity, leading to industries choosing to relocate to the country. To keep this industry, the country needs to meet the increasing electricity demand and ensure it is still competitively priced. Forecasts of the electricity needs in the future to 2050 indicate that electricity demand can increase by 50 TWh in the lowest scenario and up to 160 TWh in the highest scenario. To meet these needs, the forecasts indicate that new wind power will meet half the demands and the rest by increased solar and hydropower [1]. However, wind power on land has recently been controversial over the last few years in Norway due to land disputes. The uncertainty of new investments in production, the European energy market being affected by the war in Europe, and the reduced gas supply has led to higher electricity prices in Norway and the risk of having a power deficit by 2027. It has also led Norway to rethink its energy investments to keep up with the green shift. New nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), are therefore gaining more focus and being investigated. With help from nuclear consultants from WSP, the focus of this thesis project has been to establish a process for evaluating geographical considerations and different counties’ energy needs in Norway for a site selection for SMRs. By doing and reviewing an energy mapping of Norway’s county’s energy production, consumption, and energy balance for 2021, different operators of interest were chosen for further investigation for a siting. After selecting a county, a fully geographical information system (GIS) SMR siting was performed. The county was subjected to a multi-criteria decision analysis based on specific criteria drawn from IAEA regulation documents and from nuclear consultants from WSP. Criteria weights were assigned concerning the chosen county’s geographical and infrastructure advantages and disadvantages. The three cases, Open, Normal and Restrictive, were conducted to assign spatial suitability advantages for all the criteria. Models were then created in a ArcGIS to identify possible candidate sites. Four different geographical maps were constructed showing suitable sites for SMRs, ranging from very suitable to unsuitable. The first map without any restrictions offers more potential than the other cases due to no restrictions being introduced. The Open case provides the most potential among the three cases with restrictions due to the low geographical distances considered for the restriction criteria. The Restrictive case offers the most minor suitable area than the other due to the high geographical distance considered for all the criteria. The Normal case falls between the Open and Restrictive.