Holistic Assessment of Critical Infrastructure Resilience during Disasters (HACIRD) - A case study of the 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquakes

Abstract: On February 6, 2023, two earthquakes (7.8MW and 7.7MW) struck Turkey within nine hours, resulting in over 50,000 fatalities and significant damage to critical infrastructures (CI) which provide services essential for the functioning of society. This thesis aims to holistically assess the impact this earthquake had on critical infrastructures for providing vital societal services through the development and application of a generic resilience framework. The framework for holistic assessment of critical infrastructures during disasters (HACIRD) combines methods from past assessments, to assess quantitative and qualitative aspects of resilience for CIs both individually and holistically, which was lacking in the literature. The framework was then applied to the 2023 earthquakes, which revealed needs for: 1) Managing dependencies on electricity, 2) Managing dependencies on telecommunication, 3) Overall greater consideration of resilience in industries, 4) Addressing bottlenecks in railway system, 5) Better managing interdependencies through cross-sectoral forums. The framework application encountered challenges. Data quality was low due to biases and only limited direct contact with CI representatives. The assessment itself encountered challenges regarding complex interactions, subjectivity, and comparability. Despite challenges, the framework, in its current state, revealed to be very useful and applicable for attaining a holistic critical infrastructure interdependency assessment of the 2023 Turkish earthquake, providing many valuable insights for improved critical infrastructure and disaster risk management. To further validate and enhance the framework and its application, it can be applied in more cases, a more standardized methodology developed and operator incentives for assessments and cross-sectoral collaborations examined.