Tangled Up in Blue: Future Cobalt Scarcity and Environmental Effects of Cobalt Usage in Lithium- Ion Batteries

Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate future scarcity and environmental effects of cobalt. This was done by creating three scenarios based on different prognoses concerning the future use of cobalt up to the year 2050, Business as usual (Scenario I), Recycling Rate Improvements (Scenario II) and Technological Advancements (Scenario III). Regarding scarcity, Scenario III had the lowest overall cobalt use, 3.68 megatonnes, whilst Scenario I had the highest, 10.8 megatonnes. Comparing this to existing cobalt reserves of 8.3 megatonnes and resources of 25 megatonnes implied that there was no major risk of cobalt scarcity in any scenario and that the green transition is not threatened, as long as some resources are turned into reserves. The opposite relationship was true for environmental impact where Scenario I, II and III had global warming potentials of 18.0, 15.9 and 7.51 kg CO2-eq/kg cobalt in batteries, respectively. Consequently, the most important action to reduce the environmental effects of cobalt is improving technology which, specifically, involves lowering fuel consumption, reducing cobalt content in LIBs and introducing greener electricity mixes. However, for the cobalt life cycle to be sustainable long-term, improving cobalt recycling is also instrumental.