Fertility responses to climate change in West Africa

Abstract: We analyse the effects of climate anomalies on women’s fertility in West Africa. We combine socioeconomic and fertility data from 10 rounds of Burkina Faso, Guinea, Nigeria and Mali ’s Demographic and Health Surveys and long-term high resolution spatial temperature and precipitation records to assess how women and households adapt their fertility preferences and births in response to exposure to local temperature and precipitation anomalies. We also analyse the role of physical capital and livelihoods in such response. We find positive associations between higher than normal temperatures and the odds of desiring a larger family and births, while precipitation shocks show weakly robust results. We attribute this upward revision in women’s fertility to higher labour demand or lower costs of childbearing.