Modelling sugarcane expansion - Socioeconomic and climate effects from an expansion in the Pontal do Paranapanema region, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: This thesis presents results from a study of socioeconomic and climate effects connected to a sugarcane ethanol expansion scenario in the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Sugarcane ethanol prodcution is expected to grow in the Sao Paulo state. Pontal do Paranapanema is the only region in the state where a large scale sugarcane expansion can take placré and this expansion will likely affect the rural family farmers in the region. There is concern that without guidelines the expansion might affect income growth in a negative way for the family farmers living in the area. Two models were created one for calculating income growth for the family farmers when introducing a combined sugarcane and milk prodution system. The other model calculated energy and emissions from a sugarcane expansion and the introduced production system. The model analyses indicate that income could more than double for family farmers if a combined sugarcane and milk production system is introduced. At the same time, the global emissions of greenhouse gases could be significantly reduced if the ethanol from such production replaced gasoline used for transport in EU.