Philippine strategic behavior from 2011 to 2021 in light of developments in the South China Sea

Abstract: In the past decades, China's rise has set off a shift from the unipolar era, rendering the South China Sea (SCS) a theatre for revived great power rivalry. In this environment, the behavior of secondary states navigating the heavy seas of the SCS dispute has drawn significant academic attention to the study of small and middle-power strategy. This thesis focused on the strategic response employed by the Philippines in response to developments in the SCS from 2011 to 2021. Qualitative content analysis was used to examine official communications and published documents and determine the nature of the state behavior employed by two consecutive presidential administrations, using the theoretical framework of hedging as a risk management strategy. The analysis revealed a shift from a traditional balancing type of response employed by the Aquino III administration, to an approach illustrative of hedging during the Duterte administration, where hedging is understood as a downplaying of events in the SCS, measures of military and defense capabilities enhancement that are not specifically directed at China, and ambiguous alignment signals, all part of an effort to mitigate the risks that the Philippines would face, should a potential escalation of the dispute materialize.