Future availability of cobalt: Predicting future production and the possible impact of environmental, social, and governance conflicts on cobalt production.

Abstract: The pursuit of sustainable development has become a critical concern in today's world, prompting a reevaluation of various industries and their environmental impacts. One such industry at the forefront of sustainability efforts is the production of cobalt, a crucial component in the manufacturing of electric car batteries. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are widespread and require cobalt to be built. As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, it is imperative to assess the future production scenarios for cobalt and the associated implications for sustainable development. This study employs a depletion rate analysis approach to explore potential trajectories in cobalt production and their alignment with sustainable development goals. By considering factors such as demand growth and resource availability, nine future scenarios are constructed. The study shows that the production of cobalt should reach its peak production between 2025 and 2027 if the economically viable reserves stay the same. However, the study highlights the potential for the exploration of new cobalt reserves, which could significantly impact future production trajectories from terrestrial deposits and underwater resources. The study reveals that by mining most of the available terrestrial cobalt reserves, the production of cobalt could continue to grow until approximately 2035 or 2042. Furthermore, if we add the seafloor resources, then the production could increase until 2071 at the minimum. However, the geographical concentration of cobalt can be problematic for future exploitation since the Democratic Republic of the Congo will keep producing more than 50% of the cobalt extracted until 2030. Ultimately, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between sustainable development, future cobalt production, electric cars, and cobalt resources. The findings provide valuable insight for policymakers and industry stakeholders. It shows that the current resources would be sufficient to match a low-scenario of 150 million electric cars by 2030, but not necessarily more.