A Gradient Boosting Tree Approach for Behavioural Credit Scoring

Abstract: This report evaluates the possibility of using sequential learning in a material development setting to help predict material properties and speed up the development of new materials. To do this a Random forest model was built incorporating carefully calibrated prediction uncertainty estimates. The idea behind the model is to use the few data points available in this field and leverage that data to build a better representation of the input-output space as each experiment is performed. Having both predictions and uncertainties to evaluate, several different strategies were developed to investigate performance. Promising results regarding feasibility and potential cost-cutting were found using these strategies. It was found that within a specific performance region of the output space, the mean difference in alloying component price between the cheapest and most expensive material could be as high as 100 %. Also, the model performed fast extrapolation to previously unknown output regions, meaning new, differently performing materials could be found even with very poor initial data.