Metod för beslutsstöd vid formulering och uppföljning av en kommuns klimatmål : fallstudie Uppsala kommun

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to create a method that can be used to produce decisionsupport data for the climate goals of a municipality. The method should be able to demonstrate the potential for reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for measures aimed at the stationary energy system in the municipality. It will be used to make longterm projections of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in order to be able to demonstrate the ability to reach climate goals. The aim was also to test the method's applicability by using the municipality of Uppsala and the Uppsala climate protocol project in a case study. Uppsala climate protocol is a project consisting of participants from business, government and organizations that voluntarily want to commit to reducing their carbon footprint by reducing their energy use and thus work to achieve the municipality's overall climate goal. Public reporting of energy use and climate impact has been studied in order to examine the nature of indicators and accounting figures that are commonly used in the field and how long-term forecasts are formulated. In connection to this, the type and sources for the kind of data needed was also examined. Tools that can be used as means for performing forecasts of energy systems development has been studied and evaluated. In the developed method the municipality’s geographical limit act as an overall system limit. The climate impact of the studied systems originates from fossil fuel combustion in the stationary energy system within the municipal boundaries, with the exception of electricity produced outside the municipality. At the case study of the municipality of Uppsala and the Uppsala climate protocol, most of the input data required for a baseline inventory and formulation of scenarios was retrieved from the Swedish Energy Agency, the Swedish Central Bureau of statistics and Vattenfall Heat Uppsala. Energy use and climate change forecasts was made using the simulation tool LEAP (Long -range Energy Alternatives Planning System). Two scenarios were modeled; a reference scenario describing the energy system's long-term development if no further measures is taken in addition to those already decided and an actor scenario describing an alternative development of the energy system based on additional measures to reduce climate impact. Results were reported for a base year, 2020 and 2030. For 2020 the results showed that greenhouse gas emissions from the stationary energy systems becomes 1.7 tonnes CO2-e per capita in the actor scenario, compared with 2.4 tonnes of CO2-e per capita in the reference scenario. The overall climate goal of the municipality of Uppsala and Uppsala climate protocol is that total emissions should not exceed 4.8 tonnes CO2-e per capita by 2020. The case study shows how the method can be used to make projections of energy use and climate impact from the stationary energy system within a municipality. It also shows how the method can be used to compare measures for achieving climate goals.