Giving the green light : analysis of transition management within the Dutch energy transition

Abstract: Investing in renewable energy sources (RES) is one pivotal way to ensure future energy sustainability that also mitigates climate change. The EU has committed to increase the share of renewable energy (RE), and has tasked member states with targets. The Netherlands has now issued the ‘Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth’ to attain a share of 14% RE by 2020. Coincidentally the theoretical knowledge of transition management (TM) has been part of Dutch policy making since 2001. This thesis sets about analysing how TM has been incorporated in this policy to appraise its probable efficacy in meeting the objective. First the transition typology is assessed. Then, through using the analytical framework of TM as lens, the Energy Agreement is scrutinised. The policy’s strategic, tactical, and operational levels are discerned, as well as their respective objectives, actions and instruments. Co-evolution is furthermore examined. The study finds the energy transition to follow a targeted typology with much governmental interference and an integral approach. Overall, the Energy Agreement follows the theoretical ideas of TM to a large extent, where there is a multi-level and multi-actor approach. Nevertheless, there are some parts within the Energy Agreement that are worrisome and can prove detrimental to its own success. For example, co-evolution is hampered because the strategic level is locked due to supranational influence. The analysis also demonstrates a dominance of incumbent regime actors, as well as a strong focus on cost-effectiveness that hampers innovation and niche chances which are much needed for a longer-term energy transition. The findings also point towards drawbacks of TM in itself where too much faith is fostered in the dominant regime and government. As a result, enhanced niche participation and inclusion is warranted to ensure the regime is fundamentally challenged. Furthermore, parameters are needed for directed incrementalism to allow more time for niches to ripen. Finally, this study illustrates the need to add an external, supranational level to be incorporated in the analytical framework of TM to facilitate co-evolution.