Optimizing within the Supply Chain: A Mathematical Model for Inventory Optimization with respect to Demand Planning

Abstract: This thesis examines how to design a mathematical inventory model for a ”Fast Moving Consumer Goods”-company (FMCG-company), which determines the optimal reorder point and order quantity such that the average inventory cost is minimized. The thesis was made in collaboration with a ”Software as a Service”- company which provided the data containing information about the products and inventory management of one of their customers, a FMCG-company. The thesis first considers a basic EOQ-model, with constant demand rate, that suggests a reorder time and order quantity for the products. Since constant demand rate might be an unrealistic assumption for a FMCG-company, the thesis also considers a (R,Q)-model, where the demand was based on a forecast made by using the Holt-Winters model on previous sales history. The solutions were found by investigating the singular points and comparing them to the critical point. The thesis shows that the EOQ-model gives useful results for the most indemand products, while the reorder times for the less popular products are instead impractically high. The (R,Q)-model showed more stable solutions for all products and therefore proves to be a better inventory model for FMCG-companies, as expected. Simulations of the (R,Q)-model showed various inventory cases, where some showed a mismatch between the inventory level and the demand. The cases shows how demand planning can be applied for different products for when to consider changing inventory strategy or discontinuing products and how the orders can be made optimally.