TEMPERATURE RISING : Conditions Under Which Climate Change Leads to Conflict

Abstract: Recently, it has been recognized that climate change will result in conflict only in combination with certain conditions. However, most studies have focused on short-term climate hazards and not long-term climate change. Therefore, this thesis aims to answer the question: under what conditions do climate change and not climate hazards result in conflict? A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) is conducted to answer the question. Stemming from theory, it is hypothesized that a conflict outcome will occur only when both long-term climate change (defined as temperature increase) and high vulnerability are present. High vulnerability is measured as low socioeconomic development, high agricultural dependency, low state capacity, and previous episode of conflict. The solution shows climate change, weak state, and previous conflict is sufficient for the outcome. This is argued to support the theoretical argument and is in line with expectations. However, the coverage is limited, and the solution’s robustness is weaker than hoped. Nevertheless, long-term climate change has the potential to lead to conflict when combined with societal-level vulnerability.