Coal Mine Closures, Climate Change Scepticism and Elections: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Mining Employment Shocks on U.S. Elections

Abstract: Averting the worst effects of climate change requires large reductions in coal mining employment. The political impacts of coal mine closures have not been quantitatively studied. Unemployment shocks have previously favoured the Democratic party, though changes in party support for coal mining communities and the rising role of voters' beliefs on climate change could be altering this. This paper builds on recent findings on the relationship between coal mine layoffs and climate scepticism. Using a Difference-in-Differences, Triple Differences and fixed effects models this paper empirically tests the effects of coal mining employment shocks on Republican party vote share in House of Representatives and Presidential elections. After assessing the robustness of the results, this paper finds that coal and metal mining counties respond differently to employment shocks. Distressed metal mining counties increase support for the Democratic party, while coal mining communities increase support for the Republican party. This result is largely driven by the 2016 elections. The findings are not predicted by previous literature and have implications for avoiding a public backlash to the implementation of policy to mitigate climate change.