Metapopulation persistence of insects living in hollow oaks: effects of adding oaks in  the surrounding landscape

Abstract: The oak district of Östergötland is one of the largest oak forests left in Europe and it harbours many threatened species dependent on old hollow trees. In this study, the saproxylic beetle Osmoderma eremita living in hollow oaks was used as a model species and parameterised for a metapopulation model (the incidence function model) at the level of individual trees. The aim was to set up a number of conservation management scenarios, where new oaks were added to increase the quality of the matrix and then simulate the resulting metapopulation occupancy, using three levels of dispersal. A real data set of hollow oaks was used as the base for modeling. Oaks were added to cells in a lattice covering the study landscape, where cell size, cell position and numbers of oaks per hectare were varied. The results show that a larger area of added oaks and a greater number of oaks per hectare will give a higher increase in total occupancy, no matter the dispersal, but the second smallest cell size used (3.4 km2 ) will give the highest response per effort for medium and high dispersal abilities, and smaller cells with greater number of oaks per area can be more effective. The spatial position of the increase in occupancy differs depending on dispersal ability of the focal species and should be considered in conservation management work. For unoccupied cells, the effort required to get the cell occupied will be smaller for cells having a greater number of oaks.