Risk of getting caught and its impact on residential burglaries : Panel study of residential burglaries and clearance rates in Swedish counties in the period 2001-2013

Abstract: Research on deterrence from crime is often about the strength of possible punishment, but less often about the risk of getting caught as a deterrent. According to rational choice theory, the risk of getting caught should have a deterrent effect. In this essay, I investigate whether the number of residential burglaries solved affects the number of reported residential burglaries. The relationship between these is examined through an analysis of the 21 Swedish counties during the period 2001 to 2013. I use a dynamic two ways fixed effects model, estimated with a least squares dummy variable estimation (LSDV). Control variables are used to capture criminological factors such as wealth and population density. The clarification percentage is adjusted for 1 and 2 years respectively. A significant negative relationship is found between clearance rate and reported residential burglaries.