COME RAIN OR SHINE, THERE IS ALWAYS CRIME. Examining the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and daily crime rates in Malmö, Sweden

Abstract: Crime and weather are common topics of conversation, but rarely simultaneously. Criminological research has investigated the two and found that there is a connection. However, this nature of the association varies depending on geography and type of crime. The current study used official crime records and public weather data to investigate the relationship between weather, in the form of temperature and precipitation, and daily crime rates of seven crime types in Malmö, Sweden from 2010 to 2015. Negative binomial regression analyses were run and controlled for a range of temporal and seasonally recurring variables to find the unique contribution of weather. The results showed that rates of assault, bicycle theft, street robbery, and vandalism increased with increasing temperature, and that rates of assault, bicycle theft and arson decreased with the presence of precipitation. Implications for theory are that environmental factors should not be overlooked in explanations of criminal behavior. As for policy implications, the results can aid crime prevention agencies in understanding how crime patterns fluctuate which in turn informs their decision-making relating to prioritization of distribution of resources.