The devil in disguise : seeking political opportunity through Brexit to claim 'rights to the city' in London

Abstract: There has long been a crisis of housing affordability in London, which the government and private sector are failing to address. On top of the socio-economic challenges brought about by this, London’s current and new stock of housing are not built to the necessary environmental standards to achieve legally binding environmental targets. However, the contentious Brexit vote and the continued uncertainty brought about by the negotiations with the European Union, have mediated a series of favourable impacts to the property market, for those affected by the crisis. House prices are falling, with the potential of more homes being vacated if the financial services workforce leaves. It appears the Brexit uncertainty is weakening the economic forces responsible for shaping London’s property make-up. This paper conducts a scenario analysis to assess the potential for a political opportunity to rethink housing, in favour of bottom-up community-led housing. It also assesses the environmental sustainability benefits which bottom-up community-led housing can bring to London. Two scenarios are drawn out for a soft and hard Brexit. Information was abducted from media sources, before then engaging with various stakeholders at the government, professional and community level to build the scenario analysis further. The findings show that from the media analysis, a hypothetical political opportunity exists for community-led housing to claim ‘rights to the city’. After engaging with various stakeholders, the research finds there is acknowledgement of the impacts in these scenarios to their favour, as well as the ability to address the environmental sustainability challenges through community-led housing. However, the uncertainty is also hindering progressive action to claim this political opportunity, as no stakeholders have a strategy to act on Brexit, in relation to housing. This research also finds that society is suffering from fragmentations as a result of decades of neoliberalism. Brexit’s divisive nature appears to add to the fragmentations within society, making any collective approach to claim political opportunity currently difficult. However, the completion of the scenario analysis at least provides a platform for understanding the nature of claiming a political opportunity, as a result of Brexit. This may be utilised for further research or social engagement for potentially claiming this political opportunity to address the sustainability challenges brought about by housing in London.