From Reassurance to Deterrence : Tracing Small State Influence Within NATO Decision-Making

Abstract: This study investigates how small states can employ different strategies to overcome structural disadvantages and exert influence within NATO. To this end, the establishment of Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) has been used as case study to explore how the three Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – undertook deliberate efforts during the decision-making process to serve their long-time policy preferences. As part of a reinvigorated strategic approach, the eFP multinational battlegroups would ultimately constitute leading elements of the alliance’s deterrence and defence posture. Through careful process-tracing, this study illustrates how the Baltic states, both as a collective trio and within a larger coalition, mitigated their structural disadvantages by joining efforts to influence others. The cohesiveness among eastern allies, and moreover the concrete and tangible policy preferences of the Baltic states, benefited discussions where allies’ diverging strategic preferences needed to be reconciled to find an equitable compromise. The study includes eleven semi-structured interviews with senior officials who were directly or indirectly involved in the decision-making process, allowing for credible, first-hand insights into the internal development of NATO’s strategic shift.