Political instability and revolutionary war in the Arab Spring - a statistical approach

Abstract: The topic of this thesis is on political instability and revolutionary war in the countries that were involved with the Arab Spring. As created by James. C Davies (1962), the J-curve hypothesis serves as the foundational theoretical framework, where revolutions are ignited after prolonged improvements in political and economic living conditions which become interrupted by a sharp reversal. Panel data with variables that measure quantitative factors are analysed by using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and logistic regression, to statistically test which factors have created political instability and ignited revolutionary war in the Arab Spring. The results of the statistical analysis indicate that political factors, rather than economic factors, such as political terror against the population and government corruption are the most relevant in explaining political instability and revolutionary war in the Arab Spring and the developments that followed.