Temporal Persistence of the Homicide Rates in the Colombian Municipalities.

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to determine the existence of temporal persistence in the homicide rates in the Colombian regions, or in other words, to determine the existence of a relationship between the past and present homicide rates. In order to achieve this objective, in this study was analyzed longitudinal data with annual observations for all the municipalities of the country. The results from this analysis suggests the presence of a certain degree of criminal inertia, which implies that the homicide rates in the present can be predicted to some extent by the homicide rates in the past.