Masked Autocratization : Testing Levitsky and Ziblatt's Theory of Democratic Backsliding in the Context of Polish Covid-19 Autocratization

Abstract: The study examines to what extent Levitsky & Ziblatt’s theory of democratic backsliding, as a universal three-step sequential process of democratic deterioration, can explain the novel phenomena of Covid-19 autocratization, in the context of Poland. Via said aim, the research serves as an explorative investigation into the strategies and methods used to invoke democratic backsliding amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. The theory’s external validity is assessed by analyzing the most blatant and far-reaching policies of Polish Covid-19 autocratization, targeting the presidential election, health personnel, and civil servants. To structure said analysis Vedung’s goal-attainment evaluation model is utilized. Results conclude that the theory lacks significant explanatory power. While the targets of democratic deterioration remained relevant, theoretical conformity only occurred for one of the analyzed policies, while the rest revealed tactics of democratic deterioration not theoretically applicable. Moreover, substantial parts of the theory remained irrelevant, and the theory’s sequential aspect did not apply. Consequently, the study proposes a revised version of the theoretical framework, encompassing strategies of democratic deterioration specific to the examined context and that disregards the sequential aspect. The likely explanation for the lack of theoretical conformity is attributed to the structural component; the theory suggests democratic backsliding as a gradual and strategic process, whereas Covid-19 autocratization occurred more chaotically and opportunistically, instigating autocratization whenever and wherever possible. The opportunistic structure also elucidates the novel and imaginative strategies through which autocratization was invoked, capitalizing on the alternative prospects of democratic deterioration presented by the crisis.