Impacts of increased plastic recycling in Sweden - A quantitative study of the environmental, social and economic impacts of increased plastic recycling in Sweden

Abstract: The rapidly growing, global plastic production and the waste generated as an effect of this is associated with countless environmental problems. As this sector continues to expand, so will the problems. Further complicating is the fact that currently only a small proportion of plastic is being recycled or re-used. A majority of the recyclable plastic in the EU and in Sweden is instead being incinerated for energy recovery. To increase plastic recycling, a new EU target was set in 2018. The target aims to recycle 55% of the plastic packaging waste by 2030. The purpose of this study is to quantify the environmental, social and economic impacts of increased plastic recycling in Sweden. This will be done by assessing the GHG-emissions, jobs generated, and costs associated to the collection, transport, sorting and recycling of plastic waste. The results of the impact assessment can be used to predict the best future pathway for Sweden to achieve the new EU target. The quantification is enabled by using a modified version of a plastic waste management flow model, developed for Plastic Recyclers Europe. Based on the results, the best future pathway can be determined through a scenario analysis. Three different target scenarios are examined. In the first scenario the aim is to reach the EU target of 55%. In the second a “no export” condition applies, and in the third a ban on energy recovery of recyclable plastics is applied. Scenario 3 results in the highest reduction of GHG-emissions as well as the highest generation of jobs. Thus, this scenario is the most long-term sustainable option as it encourages a more circular economy. However, due to the magnitude of change needed to achieve this, a large economic investment is needed. A gradual adaptation using different strategies and policy instruments will be necessary.